🔍 The Vibe Check: July 2025 – Winter Warm-Up or False Spring?

Is the market finally thawing, or just teasing us with a flicker of momentum? 

As we roll into July, the latest data and expert commentary suggest we’re in that awkward in-between stage—where confidence is cautiously creeping in, but no one’s ready to pop champagne just yet.

This is an AI-generated summary of insights from economists, national data, and real estate market reports from REINZ, Barfoot & Thompson, and Tony Alexander.

💥 Sales Are Up – But Prices? Holding the Line

According to Barfoot & Thompson, Auckland had its strongest June sales performance in four years, shifting 876 homes—almost 29% up on June 2024. Sales in May were similarly upbeat, hitting record post-2021 levels.

The median price in Auckland climbed to $981,500 in June, the highest it’s been all year and up 5.7% from May, although still around 4% lower than June 2024. So while there’s more action, prices aren’t surging—think stability, not a spike.

REINZ backs this up, reporting a 3.3% annual increase in Auckland sales, though the median price is still down 3.5% year-on-year.

🏡 Listings Down, Choice Up

June brought fewer new listings, but overall stock levels remain high. Barfoot had 5,831 properties on the books, and Realestate.co.nz lists over 12,600 in Auckland alone, giving buyers more options than they’ve had in years.

Tony Alexander notes that while buyer activity is ticking up—especially among first-home buyers—investors are still cautious. Employment concerns are front of mind, and even though attendance at open homes and auctions is improving, it’s not exactly booming.

🧊 Buyers’ Market Still in Play

Economist Tony Alexander calls it straight: this is still a buyers’ market, and likely will be through 2026. With more properties to choose from and less pressure to pounce, buyers are taking their time—and they’ve got the leverage.

But the recent OCR cut to 3.25% by the Reserve Bank might stir the pot. Lower mortgage rates are nudging some hesitant buyers back into the game.

🚨 Bottom Line

While prices are largely flat and listings are plentiful, there’s definite movement—sales are up, confidence is growing (albeit slowly), and the recent interest rate drop may be the nudge some were waiting for. That said, the market’s still favouring buyers, especially those who are prepared and informed.

Buyers: You’ve got options and time—but well-priced properties are still moving quickly.

Sellers: Presentation and pricing matter more than ever. Be sharp, not sentimental.

Want to know where your property stands in all this? Let’s chat. Winter might just be the warm-up act for a more active spring.